Many homebuyers assume that mortgage rates simply rise and fall with the Federal Reserve’s moves. But in reality, a whole mix of factors influences the mortgage rates banks offer each week. At First Hope Bank, we often get questions like, “The Fed cut rates – why didn’t mortgage rates drop?” or “Why do different banks have different rates?” This informal guide will demystify what impacts mortgage rates, so whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned shopper, you’ll understand how lenders (including First Hope Bank) set their rates for conventional home loans.
It’s easy to think the Fed controls all interest rates, but that’s not quite true. The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate, which is a short-term rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. That rate directly influences things like credit card APRs, auto loans, and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs tied to short-term indices like SOFR). Fixed-rate mortgages, however, are long-term loans – they behave differently. In fact, fixed mortgage rates tend to move in tandem with the bond market, especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, rather than the Fed’s short-term rate. The Fed might raise or lower policy rates to steer the economy, but mortgage lenders focus on longer-term expectations.
Why the 10-year Treasury? Think of a 30-year fixed mortgage: the average homeowner holds their mortgage only ~7-10 years (due to selling or refinancing). That makes its effective duration similar to a 10-year bond. Investors who buy mortgages compare them to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is a benchmark for long-term interest rates. If the 10-year Treasury rate jumps, new mortgage rates often climb as well, and vice versa. As one study explains, the 30-year mortgage is “benchmarked” to the 10-year note – as the 10-year moves, mortgage rates follow.
Bottom line: When the Fed announces a rate change, it indirectly affects mortgages by shaping economic expectations. But there’s no one-to-one link. Mortgage rates may already have adjusted in anticipation of a Fed move or might even move opposite if investors interpret Fed signals in unexpected ways. So don’t be surprised if your mortgage quote doesn’t drop overnight after a Fed rate cut – lenders are looking at the bigger picture.
If the Fed isn’t pulling the strings on fixed mortgage rates, who is? The answer: the global bond market and investor demand. Banks ultimately get the money they lend for mortgages from investors – often by selling mortgages or mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Mortgages are a lot like bonds: an investor hands over a lump sum (your loan amount) and gets paid back over time with interest. Because of this, mortgage rates move up and down with bond prices and yields. In fact, “movement in the bond market generally translates to movement in mortgage rates,” as Mortgage News Daily notes.
A major influence is the 10-year Treasury yield. Investors see U.S. Treasury bonds as “risk-free” benchmarks. Mortgages and MBS must offer a higher yield than Treasuries to attract buyers, since they carry a bit more risk. Typically, the average 30-year mortgage rate has been about 1.5–2 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury yield in normal times (this difference is often called the “spread”). This spread isn’t arbitrary – it exists to cover the extra risks and costs of mortgages. For example, mortgages can be paid off early (if you refinance or sell the home), which is a risk to investors that bonds don’t have (called prepayment risk). Also, there’s a credit risk a homeowner could default (whereas the U.S. Treasury won’t default). Investors demand a bit more interest on mortgages to compensate for these uncertainties.
Lender costs and profit margins are part of the equation too. When First Hope Bank (or any lender) sets a mortgage rate, we add a margin on top of the base market rates to cover servicing the loan, paying required guarantee fees (for conventional loans sold to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac), and to earn some profit. This is reflected in that mortgage-Treasury spread. In industry terms, there’s a “primary-secondary spread” – the gap between the rate a borrower gets and the yield on an MBS sold to investors – which covers origination costs, servicing fees, and lender profits. Essentially, banks can’t loan money at zero markup; we have operating expenses and need a cushion for risk. So part of your rate is determined by these built-in costs and desired margins in the mortgage business.
Mortgage rates don’t move in a vacuum – they respond to the overall economy. Inflation is a big one. Inflation erodes the value of future interest payments, so if investors expect higher inflation, they will demand higher rates on bonds and mortgages to compensate. For example, if prices are rising fast, a 3% mortgage yield isn’t attractive – lenders will push rates up to maybe 5% or 6% so the returns beat inflation. On the flip side, when inflation is low or falling, mortgage rates tend to come down.
Economic growth and employment also play a role. In a booming economy with low unemployment, people generally earn and spend more, which can lead to inflation and higher interest rates. Strong growth often causes investors to shift money from bonds to stocks (seeking higher returns), which can push bond prices down and yields (and mortgage rates) up. Conversely, if the economy looks shaky or a recession looms, investors flock to safe bonds – driving yields down and often dragging mortgage rates lower to encourage borrowing. That’s why bad economic news (or uncertainty) can be good for mortgage rates.
Don’t forget housing market conditions. While broader economic trends set the backdrop, housing demand can have a localized effect. If there’s high demand for mortgages (lots of buyers) but limited funds to lend, rates might inch up. However, in practice, the mortgage market is national/global, so this plays out as part of the larger supply and demand for credit. Global events and policies can sway rates too. For instance, international crises or geopolitical events might drive a “flight to safety” where global investors buy U.S. Treasuries, lowering yields and mortgage rates. Government policy changes (such as new regulations on lenders, or changes in tax laws or Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac rules) can indirectly influence mortgage pricing as well. In short, anything that changes investors’ outlook on future economic conditions – from a new jobs report to an election or a trade policy – can ripple into mortgage rates.
Financial markets are forward-looking. This means lenders often adjust mortgage rates in anticipation of economic news. If the Fed is expected to cut rates next month, you might see mortgage rates dip now as investors bet on a slower economy ahead. By the time news hits, mortgage rates may have already moved. That’s why timing the market is tough – and why you’ll hear advice to focus on getting a mortgage when you need it, with a payment you can afford, rather than chasing every headline.
You’ve likely noticed that not all banks or lenders quote the same mortgage rate. Competition and business strategy can lead to different rates for the same borrower on the same day. Some lenders simply operate with lower overhead or are willing to take a smaller profit per loan, allowing them to offer a slightly lower rate. Others might specialize in certain loan types or credit profiles and adjust their pricing accordingly.
First Hope Bank, for example, offers conventional mortgages with competitive rates, and we price our loans to balance fairness to our customers with prudent business sense. We monitor what other banks and credit unions in our area are offering as well. If the market is very competitive (say, a lot of lenders are trying to attract borrowers), we might sharpen our rates to win your business. On the other hand, during times of high demand when applications are flooding in, lenders might not feel the need to offer the absolute lowest rate to fill their pipeline. Mortgage rates can be as much a business decision as a financial one.
Keep in mind, the rate you see advertised (“as low as X%”) usually assumes an ideal scenario. Each lender has adjustments for your credit score, loan size, etc. That’s why it’s important to compare Loan Estimates from multiple institutions and see how each is pricing your specific scenario. Also, note whether rates come with points** (upfront fees to buy down the rate) – a quote might be lower because you’re paying extra fees. A good lender will walk you through these details so you’re comparing apples to apples.
While market forces set the general range of mortgage rates, your personal financial profile determines where within that range your rate will land. Lenders complete a complex assessment of risk for each borrower. Here are some key personal factors that impact your mortgage rate:
Importantly, these personal adjustments are generally transparent and standardized. Lenders use rate sheets or software that add, say, 0.125% to the rate for a certain credit score range, or +0.25% for high LTV, etc. These adjustments might vary a bit by lender but are based on industry data and guidelines. They don’t usually change day-to-day – what changes daily is the underlying base rate from the bond market. So if the bond market pushes rates up one week, all borrowers might see higher quotes, but the difference between a great credit borrower and a fair credit borrower remains consistent in terms of adjustments.
As you can see, mortgage rates are influenced by a blend of broad forces and personal factors – from global investors trading bonds, to the Federal Reserve’s policies, to your credit score and down payment. Banks like First Hope Bank stay on top of all these inputs. We update our conventional mortgage rates regularly (sometimes even daily) based on the latest market conditions. Our goal is to offer competitive rates while ensuring we manage risk and provide the personal service you expect.
For you as a consumer, understanding these factors can help you navigate the home-buying process more confidently. For example, you now know why a news headline about the Fed might not translate into a cheaper mortgage immediately, or why one lender’s rate might differ from another’s. You also know which personal improvements (like boosting your credit or saving a larger down payment) might earn you a better rate offer.
At First Hope Bank, we offer a range of conventional home loan products with fixed or adjustable rates to suit your needs. Our experienced loan officers are happy to explain the current rates and what options you qualify for. We believe an informed borrower is an empowered borrower, so we’re transparent about how we determine our rates.
In summary, mortgage rates aren’t magically set by one factor – they’re the result of economic trends, investor sentiment, competitive strategy, and individual borrower criteria. It’s a complex recipe, but the outcome is an interest rate tailored to your situation and the current market. The next time you see mortgage rates move, you’ll know there’s more at play than just the Fed. And when you’re ready to lock in a rate for your dream home, First Hope Bank will be here to offer guidance and a great rate based on real factors – not myths. Happy home hunting!
Sources: Mortgage industry insights and data from Fannie Mae, CBS News, and Mortgage News Daily, among others, have informed this article to ensure accuracy and clarity in explaining what truly drives mortgage rates.
How does the Fed influence mortgage rates? Here’s what to know as policymakers consider trimming borrowing costs. – CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-cut-mortgage-impact-september-2025
What Determines the Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage? | Fannie Mae
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/publications/housing-insights/rate-30-year-mortgage
Why Mortgage Rates Move
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/learn/mortgage-rates/change